A proposal of a suspicion of tax fraud indicator based on google trends to foresee Spanish tax revenues

This article contributes to the relationship between fiscal fraud and tax collection in Spanish economy, creating a composite suspicion indicator (STFI) based on Google Trends searches study dynamics foresee revenues evolution Spain. Also, we expand knowledge field of indicators, following UNODC (2020) OECD (2016) recommendations. To this purpose, apply factor analysis create and, next, utilize techniques centered fractional integration (ARFIMA) cointegration VAR (FCVAR) assess STFI behavior against GDP. The outcomes indicate that differencing parameter d is less than 1 all time series analyzed. leading have similar statistical (d ​= ​0.49 ​0.40, respectively), which implies mean reversion. On other hand, GDP will behave similarly two series, with ​0.05, means shocks temporary effect behavior, these effects disappear by themselves short term series. FCVAR results short-lived shock duration due error correction their short-run stationary behavior. In end, applying wavelet analysis, determine maintains negative association collection, except 2017 2018, when high economic growth offsets fraud.